Highlights

• • Chen’s provided career win-rate (7-11) conflicts with a 90% market pricing
• • At our 30% estimate, the home price 6.25 offers large positive EV

Pros

• + Large pricing gap between implied market odds and player performance data in the research
• + Significant positive EV at current widely-available price (6.25) if our probability estimate is reasonable

Cons

• - Very limited information on David Qariaqus in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Small-sample and short-career data for Chen means outcomes are volatile; market may reflect unshared info (injury/withdrawal) not in research

Details

We see a large market skew: the away (Chen Dong) is priced at 1.10 (implied win probability ~90.9%) while Chen’s own career record in the research is 7-11 (38.9% win rate) with weak recent results on hard courts. There is no supporting evidence in the provided data that Chen should be a 90% favorite. Given the limited data and Chen’s small sample and poor recent form, we conservatively estimate David Qariaqus’s true chance to win at ~30%. At that probability the fair decimal price for David would be ~3.333; the current market price of 6.25 therefore offers substantial value. Calculation: estimated_true_probability = 0.30 -> min_required_decimal_odds = 1 / 0.30 = 3.333. Expected value at current odds 6.25 = 0.30 * 6.25 - 1 = 0.875 (87.5% ROI per unit). We use the quoted current home price (6.25) for the EV calculation.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Chen (1.10) is extremely high (~90.9%) and likely overstated
• • Chen Dong’s career record in the research is 7-11 (38.9%) with mixed/weak recent results on hard courts
• • Very limited publicly provided information on David Qariaqus creates uncertainty and potential market overreaction