David Saye vs Maximilian Borisov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value at the current price: our conservative estimate (60%) is below the market-implied probability for Saye, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~65.8% for Saye at 1.52
- • Our best estimate (60%) yields negative EV (-0.088) at current odds
Pros
- + Favorite status and home/USA listing could reflect some advantage not captured in sparse data
- + Hard-surface experience exists for Saye (1-1), so surface mismatch risk is limited
Cons
- - Sample size for Saye is tiny and unreliable for strong probability claims
- - No research provided on the opponent (Borisov), leaving uncertainty that could justify the market price
Details
We see the market prices David Saye as the clear favorite at 1.52 (implied ~65.8%). Our read of the available data is more conservative: Saye has an extremely limited recorded sample (1-1 overall, 1-1 on hard) and there is no usable information on Maximilian Borisov in the provided research. Given the tiny dataset and lack of H2H or injury/form details, we estimate Saye's true win probability at 60.0%. At the current home price (1.52) that implies a negative expected value (EV = 0.60 * 1.52 - 1 = -0.088), so there is no value to back Saye at this price. Because we cannot justify ≥65.8% true probability for the favorite with the provided evidence, we recommend taking no bet.
Key factors
- • Extremely limited available match history for David Saye (1-1 overall) reduces confidence in any high probability estimate
- • No information on Maximilian Borisov provided, so market may be incorporating unknowns we cannot verify
- • Market-implied probability (≈65.8%) exceeds our conservative estimate (60%), producing negative EV at current price