Highlights

• • Market implies 85% for Lorusso; our estimate ~78%
• • Both sides produce negative EV at current decimal prices

Pros

• + Lorusso: more matches and better win rate; recent M25 experience
• + Eichenseher: higher long-odds payout if underestimated

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and limited recent-match detail increase uncertainty
• - Market price for favorite is already very short, no positive EV

Details

We estimate Lorenzo Lorusso is the clear favorite based on available data: a larger match sample (28 matches) and a better career win rate (12-16) compared with David Eichenseher (3-7, 10 matches). Lorusso has also played at M25 level recently while Eichenseher appears at M15 level, indicating a likely quality gap at this event. The market price (Lorusso 1.176, implied ~85.0%) is steeper than our assessed win probability of ~78%, so the price does not offer positive expected value. Using p=0.78, EV at the quoted 1.176 is 0.78*1.176 - 1 = -0.083 (negative). Conversely, backing Eichenseher at 4.46 (implied ~22.4%) with our complementary probability (~22%) also yields a slight negative EV (≈ -0.019). Sample sizes are small and there is limited recent-match detail, so uncertainty is material; given current prices we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Lorusso has a larger sample (28 matches) and higher win rate than Eichenseher
• • Lorusso recently contested M25-level events vs Eichenseher appearing at M15 level
• • Market implies ~85% for Lorusso which exceeds our estimated ~78% — no value