David Eichenseher vs Millen Hurrion
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend a bet: market odds (Away 1.101) imply ~90.7% which exceeds our estimated 88.0% true probability, producing a small negative expected value.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~90.7% for Hurrion; our estimate ~88.0%
- • Minimum fair odds to back Hurrion would be ~1.136
Pros
- + Hurrion has clear form and experience edge
- + No reported injuries or red flags for either player
Cons
- - Sample size for Eichenseher is small, which increases upset variance
- - Odds are extremely short; little to no juice if our probability is correct
Details
The market price (Away 1.101 => implied ~90.7%) overstates the favorite's chances versus our assessment. Millen Hurrion has a substantially stronger record (24-15) and deeper recent match sample than David Eichenseher (2-5), so we view Hurrion as the clear favorite, but not to the extreme degree implied by 1.101. Given limited sample size and no reported injuries, we estimate Millen's win probability at 88.0%. At that probability the expected value backing Hurrion at 1.101 is negative (EV ≈ -0.031), so there is no value to take the current moneyline. To be +EV on this selection we would need minimum decimal odds of about 1.136 or higher.
Key factors
- • Millen Hurrion has a much larger match sample and better win-loss record (24-15 vs 2-5)
- • Both players have experience on clay and hard; surface does not materially flip advantage
- • Current market is extremely short on the favorite (implied >90%), which we view as overpricing