Highlights

• • Away (Daniel) implied market probability ~68.4%; our estimate 65%
• • Both sides produce slightly negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Clear surface/career win-rate advantage for Daniel
• + Market price is close to our model — no large mispricing to exploit

Cons

• - Current away odds are slightly too short to produce positive EV
• - Limited additional data (no H2H or injury detail) increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market prices (Away 1.461, Home 2.80) against our assessment of true chances. Daniel Merida Aguilar has a noticeably stronger career win rate (≈59%) and is a clay-capable player, while David Jorda Sanchis has a weaker overall record (≈48%) though he also plays clay. Considering surface, recent form in Seville, and career trajectories, we estimate Daniel's win probability around 65%. That implies fair odds of ~1.538. The current away price of 1.461 implies ~68.4% (book), which is slightly shorter than our 65% view, producing a small negative EV (-0.05). The home line (2.80) would require a true probability around 35.7% to break even; given our view Daniel is the stronger player, we estimate the home probability at ~35% which also yields slight negative EV at 2.80. Because neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted market prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Daniel Merida Aguilar significantly better career win-rate and plays well on clay
• • David Jorda Sanchis weaker overall record despite clay experience
• • Market prices favor Daniel enough that his implied probability slightly exceeds our estimate