David Saye vs Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar

Highlights

• • Both players priced equally at 1.86, implying ~53.8% break-even probability
• • Data is thin—small samples and mixed surfaces increase uncertainty

Pros

• + David Saye's 50% hard-court record (albeit from only two matches) makes him a reasonable slight favorite
• + Rethin's recent form includes multiple losses, lowering his implied chance here

Cons

• - Very small sample sizes and long gaps in recorded play for David introduce high variance
• - No clear surface or injury information to materially shift the probability edge

Details

We estimate David Saye as a slight favorite based on his 1-1 hard-court record and the very limited head-to-head context, but the market price (1.86) implies a required win probability of ~53.8%. Our best estimate of David's true win probability is 53.0% given small sample sizes, Rethin's greater match exposure (but sub-.500 record), Rethin's recent losses on clay and mixed surface experience, and David's long gap since recorded matches. At decimal 1.86 the expected return is slightly negative (EV ≈ -0.014), so there is no positive value to recommend. The data is sparse and noisy, so we avoid taking a position unless the price moves to at least the min_required_decimal_odds below.

Key factors

• • Extremely limited and recent sample for David Saye (2 matches total; 1-1 on hard)
• • Rethin has more matches (8) but a losing record (3-5) and recent clay losses
• • Market has both players evenly priced at 1.86, requiring >53.76% win probability for positive EV