Dayeon Back / Eunhye Lee vs Ulrikke Eikeri / Qianhui Tang
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home duo at 2.53 because the provided data show no decisive edge for the away pair while local/home advantage and parity in records justify a higher true probability for the home side than the market implies.
Highlights
- • All four players show nearly identical records and recent results in the provided research.
- • Home price 2.53 implies a fair probability well above our break-even threshold, producing ~19% ROI at our estimate.
Pros
- + Current home odds (2.53) are well above our min required odds (2.128) for a positive EV.
- + No objective performance gap in the supplied data to justify the away pair being a heavy favorite.
Cons
- - Research is limited and lacks doubles-specific stats, head-to-head data, and recent onsite form, increasing model uncertainty.
- - If the market price reflects unreported factors (team chemistry, recent practice, fitness), our estimate could be too aggressive.
Details
The market strongly favors the away pair at 1.515 (implied ~66.0%) despite the research showing nearly identical baseline career records and recent form for all four players (each profile lists a 10-21 record and mixed recent results). There is no clear on-paper performance edge for the away team in the provided data, while the home pairing benefits from playing in Seoul (home-court / local conditions advantage) which is not priced into the quoted line. Given the similarity in objective indicators from the research, the away price looks overstated and the home underdog at 2.53 appears to offer value. We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 47.0%, which implies a fair price of ~2.128; the current 2.53 therefore yields positive expected value (EV = 0.47*2.53 - 1 ≈ +0.189). Odds used for EV calculation: home 2.53.
Key factors
- • Provided player profiles show similar career records and recent form for all four players (no clear superiority).
- • Home pair likely benefits from local/home-court conditions in Seoul which are not reflected in the market price.
- • Market-implied probability for the away pair is high (~66%), which is not supported by the identical stats in the available research, suggesting the away line is overvalued.