Delia Gaillard vs Anna Brunet-Brady
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market heavily favors Gaillard at 1.20, but her documented win-rate (~32.3%) contradicts that price; without opponent data we decline to bet and require ≥3.100 on Gaillard for value.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Gaillard: ~83.3% (1/1.2)
- • Observed career win-rate for Gaillard: ~32.3% (10/31) — implies min fair odds ~3.100
Pros
- + Clear, objective evidence that the favorite is priced extremely short relative to documented win-rate
- + Avoids betting into a large information asymmetry (no opponent data)
Cons
- - If Anna Brunet-Brady is substantially weaker or injured (unknown from provided sources), we could be underestimating Gaillard
- - Recommendation is conservative due to lack of opponent/venue/contextual details
Details
The market prices Delia Gaillard as a heavy favorite at 1.20 (implied ~83.3%). Our only verified data shows Gaillard with a 10-21 career record (10 wins in 31 matches, win rate = 10/31 ≈ 32.3%) and recent losses on hard courts. With no independent performance or ranking data for Anna Brunet-Brady in the provided research, we cannot justify the market's ~83% probability for Gaillard. Using Gaillard's observable career win-rate as a conservative estimate of her true match probability (~32.3%), the market is heavily overpricing the favorite. To find value on Gaillard we'd need decimal odds ≥ 3.100; the current 1.20 yields a negative EV. Given the information asymmetry (no data on the opponent) and the large discrepancy between market odds and the player’s documented win-rate, we do not recommend taking either side at current prices.
Key factors
- • Delia Gaillard career win-rate 10/31 ≈ 32.3%
- • Recent documented results show consecutive losses on hard courts
- • No verifiable data provided for Anna Brunet-Brady (information gap increases uncertainty)