Highlights

• • Book odds heavily favor Mair (1.06) despite her 10-21 record and poor recent results
• • At 9.0, even a modest 15% true chance produces strong positive EV

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market-implied probability and our conservative true probability
• + Positive expected value at widely-available current price (9.0)

Cons

• - Limited data on Denisa Elena Plesa in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Underdog outcome remains low-probability and inherently higher variance

Details

We see a large market skew: the book implies Denisa Elena Plesa has ~11.11% (1/9.0) to win while Laura Mair is 1.06 (≈94.34%). The only concrete data available shows Laura Mair has a 10-21 career record with poor recent form (very few wins in her last 10 matches) and has been playing on clay and hard. That form profile makes a ~94% probability implausible. Conservatively, we estimate Plesa's true chance at 15% (Plesa 0.15, Mair 0.85) given Mair's documented win-loss weakness and lack of dominant indicators in the provided research. At decimal 9.0 this yields EV = 0.15*9.0 - 1 = +0.35 (35% ROI per unit). The market price of 9.0 therefore appears to contain value versus our conservative true probability. We use the publicly-quoted current odds for the calculation (odds_used_for_ev = 9.0).

Key factors

• • Market implies Plesa win prob ~11.11% (1/9.0) — large gap versus conservative estimate
• • Laura Mair career record 10-21 and weak recent form (few wins in last 10 matches)
• • Surface exposure (clay, hard) for Mair but no evidence in research of dominance vs opponent; absence of Plesa data increases uncertainty and undervalues underdog