Highlights

• • Denise's historical win rate is ~31% with recent hard-court losses
• • Book price of 1.60 implies ~62.5%, far above our estimated probability

Pros

• + Clear, objective data on Denise's weak recent form and season record
• + Underdog price (2.23) could be interesting if further reliable data on Kiara becomes available

Cons

• - Provided research lacks any information on Kiara Kucikova, preventing confident valuation of the away side
• - Current market strongly favors Denise at a price that produces negative EV against our estimate

Details

We estimate Denise Hrdinkova's true win probability at ~31.25% based on her 10-22 (32 matches) 2024-25 record and recent losses on hard courts. The market currently prices her at 1.60 (implied ~62.5%), which is materially higher than our estimate and therefore offers negative expected value. We have no reliable data in the provided research on Kiara Nina Kucikova to justify taking the available underdog price (2.23, implied ~44.8%); without opponent data or head-to-head information we cannot confidently assign a higher true probability to the away player. Because the favorite is overpriced relative to our estimate and we lack data to substantiate value on the underdog, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Denise Hrdinkova career record 10-22 in 2024-25 (31.25% win rate)
• • Recent form: consecutive losses on hard courts in early September 2025
• • Market prices Denise at 1.60 (implied 62.5%) — large gap vs our estimate
• • No performance, H2H or injury data provided for Kiara Nina Kucikova in the supplied research