Highlights

• • Kopp's career and recent match profile looks stronger in the provided data
• • Current market price for Kopp (2.08) appears to understate his win chances

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ~0.144)
• + Clear statistical edge in overall win rate and recent results from the provided profiles

Cons

• - Research contains little to no grass-specific performance data for either player
• - Some uncertainty due to limited head-to-head/surface information in the provided sources

Details

We estimate Sandro Kopp has the edge despite the market pricing Dennis Novak as the slight favorite. Kopp's career win rate (48-26 across 75 matches) and recent match results are stronger than Novak's (31-26 across 57 matches), while both players' recent recorded events in the Research were on clay — suggesting limited direct information on grass but no clear advantage for Novak. The market decimal for Kopp (2.08, implied win probability ~48.1%) underprices our assessed true probability for Kopp (~55%), producing positive expected value. The book is slightly overstating Novak (1.763 -> implied ~56.7%) versus our view. Given the limited surface-specific data and both players' activity profiles, we assign some uncertainty but still find value on Kopp at available prices.

Key factors

• • Sandro Kopp has a superior overall win-loss record in the Research (48-26 vs 31-26)
• • Market implies ~48.1% for Kopp (2.08) while our read is ~55% — creating value
• • Surface is grass with limited grass-specific data in the Research, increasing uncertainty