Highlights

• • Market implies big favorite for Zavatska despite similar records
• • Papamichail at 2.22 implies value if her true win chance is ≈48%

Pros

• + Current odds (2.22) are above our fair threshold (≈2.083)
• + No evidence in the supplied research of a clear mismatch favoring the market favorite

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈6.6% ROI) and sensitive to small changes in true-probability estimate
• - Limited actionable edge due to sparse differentiating data (no H2H, limited recent form variance)

Details

We see both players with nearly identical recent records (10-21) and similar surface experience on clay and hard, so the matchup looks much closer than the market price suggests. The market prices Zavatska at ~62.5% implied win probability (1.599) and Papamichail at ~45.0% (2.22). Given the parity in career records, recent form (both coming off losses) and no clear surface or injury advantage in the supplied data, we estimate a closer true probability for Papamichail of ~48%. That implies fair odds of ~2.083; the offered 2.22 therefore contains a small positive edge. Using the current decimal 2.22, EV = 0.48 * 2.22 - 1 = +0.066 (≈6.6% ROI). We favor betting Papamichail only because our estimated win probability exceeds the market-implied threshold for value; the edge is modest and based on parity between the players rather than a strong informational advantage.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent form (10-21 each)
• • Both have experience on clay and hard — no clear surface edge in provided data
• • Market favors Zavatska strongly despite the available data showing parity, creating value on Papamichail