Dia Evtimova vs Kalina Simeonova
Tennis
2025-09-14 10:11
Start: 2025-09-14 10:08
Summary
No pick
EV: -0.133
Current Odds
Home 1.86|Away 1.86
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Dia Evtimova_Kalina Simeonova_2025-09-14
Analysis
Summary: Market odds (1.02) overstate the home win probability versus what the available form data supports; expected value is negative, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Home price implies ~98% chance — we view this as overpriced for certainty
- • Limited positive form evidence for Dia and no information on the opponent increases risk
Pros
- + Home is favored by market, so match likely to be won by favorite
- + Dia has professional experience which can matter in lower-tier events
Cons
- - Dia's recent record (10-21) and recent losses reduce confidence in a near-certain outcome
- - Lack of opponent data creates uncertainty; current odds do not offer value
Details
Current prices strongly favor the home player at 1.02 (implied ~98%). Our review of the available research shows Dia Evtimova has a subpar season-level record (10-21) and weak recent form, which does not justify the near-certain market price. There is no usable information on the opponent in the provided research, increasing uncertainty. We estimate Dia's true win probability materially below the market-implied 98% (we estimate ~85%), which produces a negative expected value at the quoted 1.02. Therefore we do not recommend betting either side at current prices.
Key factors
- • Dia Evtimova season record 10-21 and weak recent results
- • Bookmaker price (1.02) implies near certainty, which is implausible given form data
- • No opponent data provided, increasing uncertainty and removing confidence in market skew