Highlights

• • Estimated away true probability: 51.0% -> required odds ≥ 1.961
• • Current best away price 1.909 produces negative EV (≈ -0.026)

Pros

• + We account for Dia's long-term positive baseline performance
• + Conservative take given incomplete opponent and surface data

Cons

• - Insufficient information on opponent and surface limits confidence
• - Recent losses for Dia reduce her expected edge and increase variance

Details

We estimate this match is essentially a coin-flip with a very slight edge to the away side driven by Dia Evtimova's mixed recent form despite a long, slightly positive career win-rate. The market prices are Home 1.826 (implied 54.8%) and Away 1.909 (implied 52.4%). Based on the limited data available—Dia's career win rate of ~52.4% across 1066 matches but recent documented losses and no information about Adriana Tkachenko, surface, or injuries—we assign the away side a true win probability of 51.0% (home 49.0%). At that probability the away side would require minimum decimal odds of ~1.961 to be profitable. The current best available away price (1.909) produces a small negative edge (EV ≈ -0.026), so there is no positive expected value at the quoted market odds. Given the uncertainty around opponent, surface, and current fitness, we prefer to pass rather than back either side at the available prices.

Key factors

• • Dia Evtimova has long career with overall win-rate ~52.4% across 1066 matches
• • Recent documented form shows losses in recent outings, suggesting slight decline
• • No usable data on Adriana Tkachenko, surface, or injuries — high uncertainty