Highlights

• • Home price 1.476 implies ~67.8% — we view this as overstated
• • Away at 2.55 requires only ~39.2% to be +EV; we estimate 42%

Pros

• + Price on away offers a clear positive EV at our probability
• + Both players play on clay so surface mismatch risk is limited

Cons

• - Edge is modest (≈7% ROI) and rests on limited recent lower‑level data
• - No H2H data and both players show inconsistent form — variance risk

Details

We see the market heavily favors the home player at 1.476 (implied win probability ~67.8%), which we believe overstates the home advantage. Both players are clay specialists with extensive lower‑level records; Diego Augusto Barreto Sanchez's career win rate is ~49.8% (125/251) vs Diego Fernandez Flores ~41.5% (85/205). Recent form is mixed for both, but Fernandez shows a recent minor‑tour win and service metrics that suggest he can be competitive on clay. At the offered away price 2.55, the break‑even probability is ~39.2%; we estimate Fernandez's true win probability at 42.0%, producing positive value. Therefore we recommend the away side because the current decimal 2.55 implies an edge: EV = 0.42 * 2.55 - 1 = +0.071 (7.1% ROI). We do not recommend backing the heavy favorite because our estimated probability for the home player (~58–60%) is well below the market implied ~67.8%, so no value exists on the favorite.

Key factors

• • Surface: both players experienced on outdoor clay
• • Market inflated favorite — home implied prob ~67.8% appears too high
• • Fernandez has a recent minor‑tour win and service stats suggesting competitiveness