Highlights

• • Diego has better career record and more clay experience
• • Current market price implies ~66.5% which exceeds our 62% estimate

Pros

• + Home player shows superior overall win rate and more match experience
• + Match played on clay, a surface both have experience on but home has greater sample

Cons

• - Recent form for both players includes multiple losses, reducing confidence in a large edge
• - Current book price for home is too short to offer positive expected value

Details

We compared the market price (home 1.503 implied ~66.5%) to our assessment based on the available profiles. Diego Augusto Barreto Sanchez shows a stronger overall record (33-28 in 61 matches, including clay) versus Tomas Curras Abasolo (14-19 in 33 matches) and likely carries a clear on-surface experience edge. However, recent match listings for both players show several losses and no clear dominant recent form for the home player that would justify the bookmaker-implied ~66.5% chance. We estimate the home win probability at ~62% based on career win rates, clay experience, and match counts. At the current decimal price of 1.503 this produces a negative expected return (EV = 0.62 * 1.503 - 1 = -0.068), so there is no positive-value bet to recommend. We therefore decline to back either side at the available prices; the home side would require decimal odds of at least 1.613 to offer positive EV.

Key factors

• • Home player has superior overall record and greater match volume (33-28 vs 14-19)
• • Both players show recent losses on similar surfaces; no clear hot form advantage
• • Bookmaker price (home 1.503) implies a higher probability than our estimate, removing value