Diletta Cherubini vs Alina Charaeva

Highlights

• • Research shows near-identical records and surfaces for both players
• • Bookmaker price for Cherubini (4.10) implies a far lower chance than we assess

Pros

• + Large gap between our estimated probability and market-implied probability creates strong EV
• + No documented injury or surface disadvantage in the provided research to justify the market gap

Cons

• - Research is sparse and identical for both players — lack of deeper data increases model uncertainty
• - Market consensus strongly favors the away player; there may be off-record factors not included in the provided data

Details

Both players' provided profiles show effectively identical recent records (10-21) and similar surface experience (clay, hard) with no injury or form edge documented. The market prices Alina Charaeva as a heavy favorite (decimal 1.23, implied ~81.3%) while Diletta Cherubini is priced at 4.10 (implied ~24.4%). Given the symmetric data in the research and absence of any clear advantage for Charaeva, we assess the bookmaker has over-weighted the away player. We estimate Cherubini's true win probability at 45%; at decimal 4.10 that produces a large positive expected value (EV = 0.45*4.10 - 1 = 0.845). Because the required fair odds for our estimate (≈2.222) are well below the available 4.10, the home side offers strong value based solely on the provided research.

Key factors

• • Both player profiles in research show identical overall records and recent match samples (10-21), implying near parity
• • No injuries, surface disadvantage, or H2H provided to justify the heavy market favoritism to the away player
• • Market-implied probability for home (≈24.4%) is far below our conservative true-probability estimate (45%), creating value