Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Serban despite nearly identical career records
• • Cherubini's price (3.18) exceeds our required odds (2.632) for a positive EV

Pros

• + Clear positive EV versus current quoted odds
• + Estimate is conservative given parity in performance data

Cons

• - Limited and noisy data set; small-sample records (10-21 vs 10-22)
• - No head-to-head, ranking, or injury details in provided research to further support the pick

Details

We see the market pricing Raluca Serban heavily as favorite at 1.34 (implied win probability ~74.6%) while Diletta Cherubini is offered at 3.18 (implied ~31.4%). Using only the provided match data, both players have nearly identical career records this span (Cherubini 10-21, Serban 10-22) and similar surface experience (clay/hard). Recent form shows losses for both in early September; Serban has a match dated 08-Sep which suggests possible fatigue or recent travel that the market may be overweighting. Given parity in records and no clear injury information or head-to-head edge in the research, we estimate Cherubini's true win probability materially above the market-implied 31.4% — we estimate 38.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.632 while the market offers 3.18, producing positive expected value. EV calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.38 * 3.18 - 1 = +0.208. We therefore recommend the underdog (Cherubini) only because the available price (3.18) yields positive EV versus our conservative probability estimate. This recommendation is conditional on no additional injury/withdrawal information and limited data points, so risk is not negligible.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Cherubini (31.4%) appears low relative to near-identical career records
• • Both players show weak recent form, reducing the likelihood of a dominant favorite
• • Serban had a match on 08-Sep which could introduce fatigue or travel effects not fully priced