Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability: ~78.1%
• • Our conservative estimated away probability: 80% → small EV (2.4%)

Pros

• + Clear negative evidence on Beckles (1-4 record, recent hard-court losses)
• + Current price 1.28 is slightly above our break-even threshold (min required odds 1.25)

Cons

• - Very small sample of recorded matches (5 matches) creates high uncertainty in true probabilities
• - Edge is slim (2.4% ROI) and could vanish with any additional information about Coats or match conditions

Details

We base our model on the only concrete data provided: Dillon Beckles has a 1-4 career record (20% win rate) across five matches, including recent losses on hard courts. With no direct data for Theo Coats, the simplest and most conservative approach is to take Beckles' observed win rate (0.20) and use the complement (0.80) as the estimated true probability for Coats in a two-player matchup. The market price of 1.28 implies a win probability of ~78.125%; our estimated true probability for Coats (80%) exceeds the market-implied probability, producing a small positive expected value. Calculations: implied market p(away)=1/1.28=0.78125; our p(away)=0.80; EV = 0.80*1.28 - 1 = 0.024 (2.4% ROI). We note the edge is slim and driven largely by Beckles' poor small-sample record, so uncertainty is high despite positive EV at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Dillon Beckles 1-4 career record => ~20% observed win rate
• • Recent losses on hard court reduce home player's short-term prospects
• • Market implies 78.1% for Coats; our conservative estimate for Coats is 80% giving slight value