Dillon Beckles vs Aman Sharma
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given Beckles' poor documented form and the market pricing him at 2.25 (implied ~44%), we find no value; do not bet at current prices.
Highlights
- • Beckles' documented win rate in provided data is 20% (1-4).
- • Beckles would need ~5.00 decimal odds to reach breakeven based on our estimate.
Pros
- + Clear, conservative read on Beckles' available recent form supports avoiding risk.
- + Market currently overprices the underdog relative to our assessment, reducing value.
Cons
- - Assessment is constrained by very limited data and absence of any profile for Aman Sharma.
- - Small-sample form metrics (5 matches) increase uncertainty; an unknown variable could change the outlook.
Details
We estimate Dillon Beckles' true win probability materially below the market price. Beckles' available career/recent form shows a 1-4 record (20% raw win rate over 5 matches) with losses on hard and clay and no supporting data indicating an upswing. The market prices Beckles at 2.25 (implied ~44.4%), which is substantially higher than our estimate; using a conservative true probability of 20% for Beckles produces an expected value of EV = 0.20 * 2.25 - 1 = -0.55 (negative). With only the provided data (no profile or form for Aman Sharma) we cannot justify a positive-expected-value bet on either side. Therefore we recommend no bet — Beckles would need decimal odds of ~5.000 or higher to be +EV given our estimate.
Key factors
- • Beckles recent/overall record 1-4 (small sample) indicates weak form
- • Current market price for Beckles (2.25) implies ~44% win chance, well above our 20% estimate
- • No information provided on Aman Sharma, increasing uncertainty and favoring a conservative stance