Highlights

• • Beckles recent record 1-4 suggests low true win probability
• • Away at 1.49 yields ~+19.2% ROI if true win chance ~80%

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between Beckles' form and market-implied probability
• + Current odds on away (1.49) are sufficient to produce positive EV under our conservative probability estimate

Cons

• - Limited public data on the away player in the provided research increases model uncertainty
• - Small sample size for Beckles' results means higher variance; outcome could swing unexpectedly

Details

We see Dillon Beckles with a very limited and poor recent match record (1-4) across clay and hard, including a recent straight-sets loss on hard. The market prices the away player (Julius Seifert) at 1.49 (implied ~67.1%) and Beckles at 2.45 (implied ~40.8%). Based on Beckles' weak form and small sample of competitive results, we assign a substantially lower chance for Beckles to win than the market-implied 40.8%, and correspondingly a higher true win probability to Seifert. Using a conservative true probability of 80% for Seifert versus the offered 1.49, the bet on the away player shows positive expected value (EV = 0.80 * 1.49 - 1 = +0.192). We therefore recommend backing the away player at current prices because the market appears to overprice Beckles given his recent results.

Key factors

• • Dillon Beckles has a 1-4 recent record with losses on hard surface, indicating poor current form
• • Market-implied probabilities (Beckles 40.8%, Seifert 67.1%) appear to overstate Beckles' chance given his form
• • At 1.49, Seifert offers positive EV if his win probability is ~80% or higher (we estimate ~80%)