Highlights

• • Kuzmanov fair price (2.50) < available price (2.65) — positive EV (~6%)
• • Market implies Llamas win ~69% which is higher than our assessment (~60%)

Pros

• + Modest positive expected value at current quoted price
• + Assessment leans on larger sample of Kuzmanov results supporting him being closer to even-money than market implies

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈6% ROI) and reliant on uncertainty in recent form and lacking H2H data
• - Research snippets include noisy recent-match stats, increasing outcome variance

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our assessment from the player profiles. The market prices Llamas Ruiz as a clear favorite at 1.45 (implied win probability ~69.0%) while Kuzmanov is a sizable underdog at 2.65 (implied ~37.7%). From the provided career data Kuzmanov has a stronger overall win rate (40-28 ≈ 58.8% across 68 matches) versus Llamas Ruiz (20-18 ≈ 52.6% across 38 matches). Both players have recent clay experience and mixed recent form, so the matchup looks closer than the market implies. Conservatively we estimate Kuzmanov's true chance to win this match at 40.0% (0.40). At that probability the fair decimal price is 1 / 0.40 = 2.50. Since the available price on Kuzmanov is 2.65, this represents positive expected value: EV = 0.40 * 2.65 - 1 = +0.06 (6% ROI). By contrast, our 40% estimate for Kuzmanov implies Llamas has a 60% win chance; at 1.45 that price offers negative EV (0.60 * 1.45 - 1 = -0.13). Therefore we recommend taking Kuzmanov only because the offered 2.65 exceeds our minimum required price of 2.50. We note model uncertainty and limited direct matchup data, so the edge is modest and should be treated as a medium-risk value play.

Key factors

• • Kuzmanov has a stronger aggregate win-rate in the provided career sample (40-28) versus Llamas (20-18)
• • Both players have clay experience and recent mixed form — match likely closer than the heavy market favorite price
• • No head-to-head data provided and limited recent-match clarity increases model uncertainty