Highlights

• • Home is heavy favorite (1.05) but price is too short for value
• • Away is inexperienced (0-7) — low chance but not enough to overcome bookmaker pricing

Pros

• + Kuzmanov's superior match experience and positive record supports a high win probability
• + Surface exposure for both players suggests limited matchup surprises

Cons

• - Market price for the favorite is extremely short, requiring very high certainty to be profitable
• - Small sample and variance in lower-tier events mean upsets remain possible despite records

Details

We estimate Dimitar Kuzmanov is the clear favorite given a 40-28 career record and extensive match history versus Alan Wazny's 0-7 record; both have clay/hard experience but Kuzmanov's volume and winning record indicate a large skill gap. The market price (home 1.05) implies a required win probability >95.24% to break even. Our conservative model probability for Kuzmanov is 94.0%, below that breakeven threshold, so the 1.05 quote does not offer positive expected value. We therefore do not recommend backing either side at the current prices. We used the current home decimal odds of 1.05 to calculate EV, which yields a small negative ROI (-0.013) based on our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Kuzmanov's much larger sample and positive record (40-28) vs Wazny's 0-7
• • Both players listed on clay and hard, but Kuzmanov's experience on both surfaces reduces volatility risk
• • Market-implied probability for 1.05 is >95.24%, above our conservative estimate of 94.0%