Dimitra Georgakopoulou vs Elizabeth Coleman
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market overprices Coleman’s certainty; we estimate a ~12% chance for the home underdog, producing a positive EV (~+0.26) at 10.5, so the home side is a value play.
Highlights
- • Coleman’s career record (10-21) undermines the market’s near-certain pricing
- • A modest underdog probability (12%) is sufficient to make 10.5 profitable
Pros
- + Strong positive EV at the quoted home price
- + Market appears to have extreme confidence that is not supported by the provided performance data
Cons
- - Limited data on Dimitra Georgakopoulou makes the upset probability uncertain
- - If Coleman’s matchup-specific advantage (unknown from available data) is large, our estimate may be too optimistic
Details
We see a very large market tilt: Elizabeth Coleman is priced at 1.04 (implied ~96% win chance). However, Coleman's documented career record (10-21 across 31 matches) and weak recent results indicate she is not an overwhelmingly dominant player. With only the provided profile to assess, we regard the market price as an overreaction to an unknown/weak opponent rather than a reflection of near-certainty. We conservatively estimate Coleman’s true win probability at 0.88 and therefore Dimitra Georgakopoulou’s win probability at 0.12. At the current home price of 10.5 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.12*10.5 - 1 = +0.26), so the home side represents value versus the quoted market.
Key factors
- • Market implies an extreme 96% win chance for Coleman, which conflicts with her 10-21 career record
- • Coleman's recent results are poor, reducing confidence that she is virtually unbeatable
- • Large odds gap (10.5 vs 1.04) creates opportunity for value on the underdog if even a small upset probability exists