Dimitris Azoidis vs Peter Makk

Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Makk (1.23) despite limited supporting match data.
• • Home price 3.65 implies only ~27% chance; our conservative estimate is ~36% which yields positive EV.

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at available home odds based on our conservative probability estimate.
• + Market overconfidence in the favorite given the thin data set for Makk.

Cons

• - Very limited and noisy data overall — no direct data for Azoidis and small sample for Makk increases uncertainty.
• - High variance outcome typical for underdog tennis bets; result sensitive to our probability estimate.

Details

We see the market makes Peter Makk a very strong favorite at decimal 1.23 (implied win probability ~81%). The only performance data available is for Makk, showing a thin sample (15 matches, 8-7) and mixed recent results on hard/clay; that limited track record does not convincingly support an 81% true win chance. Because Dimitris Azoidis has no published data in the provided research, the market may be over-weighting a perceived ranking/short-term form edge for Makk. Conservatively adjusting for sample size and uncertainty, we estimate Azoidis's true chance of winning at ~36%, which is materially higher than the market-implied probability for the home at 27.4% (1/3.65). Using the current home moneyline (3.65) produces a positive expected value: EV = 0.36 * 3.65 - 1 = +0.314. Therefore at the available home price there is value according to our model; the away price (1.23) offers no value versus our estimated probabilities.

Key factors

• • Market implies Peter Makk ~81% win probability at 1.23, a steep figure given limited match history (15 matches, 8-7).
• • Available data on Makk is thin and mixed on hard/clay, increasing model uncertainty and potential market mispricing.
• • No performance or form data provided for Dimitris Azoidis in the research, creating scope for underdog value where bookmakers favor the named favorite.