Highlights

• • Home implied prob 25.1% vs our 27% estimate — small but actionable edge
• • Current home price 3.98 is above our fair odds threshold (3.704)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price
• + Reasonable upside given similar career profiles and no reported injuries

Cons

• - Market strongly favors Xilas for a reason — his career win total is higher
• - Limited data and volatility in lower-tier matches increases outcome variance

Details

We see the market strongly favors Ioannis Xilas at 1.22 (implied ~81.97%) while Dimitris Sakellaridis is priced at 3.98 (implied ~25.13%). Based on the provided career records and recent form both players have comparable profiles with Xilas only a modest career-edge (41-49 vs 31-48) and no reported injuries or clear surface advantage in the research. We estimate Sakellaridis' true chance at 27% — higher than the market-implied 25.1% — which produces positive value at the current home price. At our 27% estimate the minimum fair decimal odds are ~3.704 and the listed 3.98 offers a meaningful margin for long-term profit. We therefore recommend taking the home moneyline only because it shows positive expected value versus the available price; the favorite at 1.22 offers no value when compared to our win-probability assessment.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities (home 25.1%, away 81.97%) vs our assessment (home 27%)
• • Career records and recent results show only a modest edge for Xilas, not large enough to justify 1.22
• • No injury reports or clear surface mismatch in the provided research to materially favor the favorite