Dino Prizmic vs Arthur Rinderknech

Highlights

• • Prizmic's supplied win-rate (73%) is materially stronger than Rinderknech's (41%)
• • Current market underprices Prizmic (2.06) relative to our 64% estimate

Pros

• + Clear win-rate advantage in the provided dataset
• + Quoted odds provide substantial positive EV at our estimate

Cons

• - Estimate is based on normalized career win-rates from provided data without detailed matchup or H2H info
• - Potential unreported factors (fitness, recent form details beyond the supplied lines) could change true probability

Details

We compare the implied market probability to our estimate derived from the players' recent records provided. Dino Prizmic has a 46-17 career record (73% win rate across 63 matches) while Arthur Rinderknech is 24-34 (41% win rate across 58 matches). Normalizing these win rates to a head-to-head probability gives Dino ~64% and Rinderknech ~36%. The market prices (Dino 2.06 => 48.5% implied, Rinderknech 1.70 => 58.8% implied) favor Rinderknech despite his weaker overall record in the provided data. Using our estimated true probability for Dino (0.64) and the available moneyline (2.06), the expected value is positive: EV = 0.64 * 2.06 - 1 = 0.318 (31.8% ROI). Therefore the home side shows clear value at the quoted price. We note the dataset includes both players' recent hard-court appearances and no injury information in the provided sources; surface compatibility and larger sample win-rate advantage support the tilt toward Dino. Because our probability estimate is model-driven from the provided win rates and lacks detailed contextual adjustments (H2H, fitness, match-up specifics), we assign medium risk to this value pick.

Key factors

• • Dino Prizmic career record 46-17 (73% win rate) in provided data
• • Arthur Rinderknech career record 24-34 (41% win rate) in provided data
• • Both players have recent hard-court activity in the supplied records
• • Market favors Rinderknech (1.70) despite inferior win-rate, creating pricing inefficiency