Dino Prizmic vs Corentin Moutet
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Dino Prizmic at 2.05 — our 55% estimate implies required odds of ~1.818, so the current price yields ~12.8% expected return.
Highlights
- • Prizmic shows a substantially higher career winning percentage in the provided data
- • Current market underestimates Prizmic relative to our probability model
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at the quoted 2.05 price based on our probability estimate
- + Surface and recent hard-court activity do not negate Prizmic's higher win rate
Cons
- - Research lacks head-to-head detail and deeper context on opponent quality
- - Market favors Moutet, indicating possible unseen factors or market information we don't have
Details
We see a clear market favorite in Moutet at 1.77 (implied 56.5%) while Dino Prizmic is offered 2.05 (implied 48.8%). From the provided profiles, Prizmic's career win rate (46-17, ~73%) is materially stronger than Moutet's (32-28, ~53%), and both have recent results on hard courts — so surface exposure does not favor one decisively. Given Prizmic's superior overall win percentage and comparable recent hard-court activity, we estimate Dino's true win probability at 55%. That implies fair decimal odds of ~1.818; the market price of 2.05 offers positive edge. Using the current 2.05 price, EV = 0.55 * 2.05 - 1 = 0.1275 (≈12.8% ROI). We prefer the home side only because the current market price exceeds our minimum required odds for positive expectation.
Key factors
- • Prizmic's much stronger career win rate (46-17) vs Moutet (32-28)
- • Both players have recent hard-court activity, so surface advantage is neutral
- • Market prices favor Moutet despite available evidence of Prizmic's higher win rate