Highlights

• • Market implied probability for Cesar: ~63.3% (1.581)
• • Our assessed probability for Cesar: 60% → fair odds 1.667

Pros

• + Clear favorite in the market, short price widely available
• + Both players have experience on similar surfaces, limiting hidden surface edge

Cons

• - Recent form for both players is poor, increasing uncertainty around any single-match estimate
• - Current favorite price (1.581) does not offer positive expected value versus our probability

Details

We estimate Cesar Bouchelaghem is the market favorite but the current price (1.581) overstates his edge relative to our assessment. Using the players' career win rates and the recent form shown in the research, we assign Cesar a true win probability of 60%. That implies fair decimal odds of 1.667, while the market is offering 1.581 (implied probability ~63.3%). At our probability the bet on Cesar is slightly negative EV, and Diogo Marques would need a much higher true probability than his career form suggests to be profitable at 2.28. Therefore we recommend no side — no positive expected value at the available prices.

Key factors

• • Cesar has the stronger career win-rate and is priced as the favorite
• • Both players show recent losing form in the provided matches — inconsistency raises variance
• • Current market price for Cesar (1.581) exceeds our fair-price estimate (1.667), leaving no value