Highlights

• • Home favorite priced 1.33 with implied probability ≈75%
• • Our conservative estimate of Morais win probability is 78%, yielding ~+3.7% ROI

Pros

• + Clear form/level advantage: M25 experience vs M15 level for opponent
• + Opponent has no wins in six matches, increasing likelihood of the favorite prevailing

Cons

• - Very small sample sizes for both players increase outcome volatility
• - Market margin and noisy stat lines mean the edge is modest and could be illusory

Details

We believe Diogo Morais represents value at the current moneyline. The market prices Morais at 1.33 (implied ~75%), which is consistent with him being the clear favorite. From the provided profiles, Morais has a marginally better record (1-2) at M25-level events on hard courts compared with Kazuki Nishiwaki (0-6) at M15-level events on hard courts. Nishiwaki’s 0-6 record and lack of recent wins materially lowers his probability of beating Morais. Given the level difference (M25 vs M15) and both players' hard-court experience, we estimate Morais’s true win probability at 78%, slightly above the market-implied 75%, producing a small positive edge. We account for limited sample sizes and noisy stat lines, so the edge is conservative but real: EV = 0.78 * 1.33 - 1 = +0.037. At those odds the bet offers positive expected value; if the market drifted below ~1.282 (implying >78% market probability) the edge would disappear. Odds used for EV calculation: decimal 1.33.

Key factors

• • Morais has better results at higher-level events (M25) compared to Nishiwaki (M15)
• • Nishiwaki is 0-6 on record, indicating persistent struggles on hard courts
• • Market-implied probability (≈75%) is slightly lower than our conservative estimated true probability (78%)