Highlights

• • Kravtsov priced at 1.181 implies he must win >84.7% to be +EV
• • We estimate his true probability ~75% given lack of grass data, producing negative EV

Pros

• + Kravtsov has a strong overall win-loss (22-11) across his recent career
• + Market consensus clearly favors Kravtsov, reflecting perceived quality

Cons

• - No documented grass-court performance for Kravtsov in the provided research
• - No data on the opponent (Mosejczuk) to justify an underdog lay or to find value

Details

We compared the market price to a realistic win probability for Albert Pedrico Kravtsov. The book markets price Kravtsov at 1.181 (implied ~84.7%). Kravtsov has a solid 22-11 record overall, but the provided profile shows most matches on clay and hard courts; there is no grass form data and the opponent (Dominick Mosejczuk) has no research provided, increasing uncertainty. We estimate Kravtsov's true win probability at ~75% on grass given surface uncertainty and limited head-to-head/context. To be +EV at the current price Kravtsov would need to win >84.67% of the time; our 75% estimate produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.75*1.181 - 1 = -0.114). The underdog price (4.66) implies ~21.5% win chance; with no evidence to justify a materially higher true probability for Mosejczuk, we cannot justify backing the underdog either. Therefore there is no value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Kravtsov (1.181) is ~84.7%, above our estimate
• • Kravtsov's provided match history is mainly clay/hard; no grass form documented
• • No information provided on Dominick Mosejczuk increases uncertainty and prevents upside reassessment