Highlights

• • Palan: significantly larger match sample and better career record
• • Van Herzeele: very small sample (4 matches) and recent local losses

Pros

• + Experience gap strongly favors the home player
• + Current price (1.30) implies a lower win probability than our estimate

Cons

• - Palan has recent losses — form is not flawless
• - Bookmaker overround and small-sample noise for both players introduce uncertainty

Details

We see a clear experience and match-volume edge for Dominik Palan (24-21 career across 45 matches) versus James van Herzeele (1-3 career across 4 matches). Both players have recent losses on hard courts, but Palan's larger sample size and winning record indicate a materially higher true win probability than the market-implied probability. The market prices Palan at 1.30 (implied ~76.9%). We estimate Palan's true win probability at 83.0%, which yields positive expected value versus the offered 1.30 price (EV = 0.83*1.30 - 1 = +0.079, or +7.9% ROI). The book's overround (~7.7%) is acknowledged, but Palan's experience and prior success on hard courts justify a higher true probability than the market-implied number, producing value at the current price.

Key factors

• • Marked experience and match-volume advantage for Palan (45 matches vs 4)
• • Both players on hard courts, but van Herzeele has multiple recent losses in Nakhon Pathom
• • Market-implied probability for Palan (~76.9%) appears lower than our estimated true probability (83%) despite the bookmaker overround