Highlights

• • Away implied probability ~72% vs our home estimate ~40%
• • Home needs odds ≥2.50 to be +EV; current 3.13 exceeds that threshold

Pros

• + Significant margin between required fair odds (2.50) and current 3.13
• + Research does not show a decisive advantage for the away pair to justify heavy favoritism

Cons

• - Research lacks doubles-specific metrics, pairing history, and contextual factors (seedings, chemistry)
• - If the market reflects inside information not in the provided sources, value could evaporate

Details

The market heavily favors the away pair (decimal 1.388 → implied ~72%), while the supplied player profiles and recent results show near-identical career records and no clear doubles advantage for either side. With no clear form or surface edge evident in the research, we believe the market overstates the away pair's win probability. If the true chance for the home duo is around 40%, the current home price of 3.13 offers value (required fair price for 40% is 2.50). EV calculation: 0.40 * 3.13 - 1 = +0.252, so the home side is +EV at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~72% for away, which seems overstated given supplied profiles
• • Research shows near-identical career records and recent form for all four players
• • No doubles-specific or surface advantage information in the research to justify the market gap