Highlights

• • Market implies Salkova ≈94% but supplied data does not support such dominance
• • At our 15% estimate, Radisic yields EV ≈ +0.527 (per 1 unit stake) at 10.18

Pros

• + Large gap between required fair odds (6.667) and market odds (10.18)
• + Both players' records/recent form are similar, reducing the rationale for such a short favorite

Cons

• - Extremely lopsided market price could reflect undisclosed info (fitness, withdrawal risk) not present in the research
• - Longshot outcomes are high variance; single-match sample uncertainty is substantial

Details

We find clear value on the away moneyline. The market's pricing (Dominika Salkova 1.06 implied ~94.3%) is extreme relative to the on-paper evidence: both players have nearly identical career records in 2024–2025 (Salkova 10-21, Radisic 10-22) and both show recent losses on hard courts. There are no injury flags or H2H data provided to justify a 94% chance for Salkova. We use a conservative estimated true probability of 15% for Radisic to win this match, reflecting that she is an underdog but not a near-impossible one given similar form and surface history. At decimal odds 10.18 this yields an expected-value (ROI) of 0.527 per unit staked (EV = 0.15 * 10.18 - 1). The minimum fair decimal odds required for this estimated probability is 6.667, well below the offered 10.18, indicating strong value. We remain cautious because extreme market skew can reflect inside information or late scratches, but based solely on the supplied profiles the price is mispriced and offers positive EV.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Salkova (≈94%) is extreme and unsupported by the supplied form data
• • Both players have virtually identical 2024–2025 records and recent losses on hard courts, implying a much closer contest
• • No injury or H2H information present to justify the heavy favorite price for Salkova