Highlights

• • Market implies a large home advantage (~64%) despite near-identical profiles
• • At an estimated true win probability of 47% the away price 2.45 yields ~15% ROI

Pros

• + Clear value at current away price if matchup is closer to even
• + No documented injury or surface advantage in the provided research to justify heavy home favoritism

Cons

• - Small sample and sparse data increase uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - If there are unseen factors (recent practice, ranking, seeding) not in the research, the market price may be justified

Details

The market prices Salkova (home) at 1.559 (implied ~64.2%) and Jamrichova (away) at 2.45 (implied ~40.8%). The researched profiles show near-identical career records, surfaces played and recent form, suggesting the matchup is much closer to even than the book market implies. Given the symmetrical data available and no clear injury or surface edge, we estimate Jamrichova's true win probability at 47% (home 53%). At that probability the current away decimal price (2.45) offers positive expected value because the market appears to over-weight the home side and contains bookmaker margin. We therefore recommend backing the away player only because EV > 0 at the quoted 2.45 price.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data
• • Surface exposure (clay/hard) and recent form don't give a clear edge to the home player
• • Market-implied probabilities heavily favor the home player, suggesting potential bookmaker overpricing and margin