Highlights

• • Salkova estimated win probability: 12%
• • Required decimal odds for value on Salkova: 8.333; current is 5.36 (no value)

Pros

• + We base the view strictly on provided research and conservative probability assumptions
• + Clear numeric threshold provided if market price drifts above 8.333 for Salkova

Cons

• - Limited information on Andrea Lazaro Garcia in the provided sources increases uncertainty
• - If hidden factors (injury, withdrawal) exist they could materially change value quickly

Details

We find no value at the quoted prices. The market makes Andrea Lazaro Garcia a very strong favorite at 1.19 (implied ~84.0%), while Dominika Salkova is a large underdog at 5.36 (implied ~18.7%). Using only the provided research, Salkova shows recent losses and a long career with mixed recent form, so we assign her a conservative true win probability of 12.0% (0.12). At that probability the fair decimal price for Salkova would be 8.333; the current 5.36 is well below that, producing a negative expected return. Conversely, the favorite's price (1.19) would only offer value if Andrea's true win probability materially exceeded the market-implied ~84%, which we cannot justify from the supplied data. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Salkova's recent form in the supplied match history shows losses and limited signs of strong momentum
• • Market strongly favors Andrea (1.19) — would require clear evidence Andrea's win chance >84% for value on favorite
• • Insufficient opponent/injury/H2H detail in the provided research to justify overruling market; underdog price is too short