Dominika Salkova vs Renata Jamrichova

Highlights

• • Players' records and recent results in the research are effectively equal
• • Away price (2.75) yields +37.5% ROI vs our 50% win-probability estimate

Pros

• + Significant positive EV at current widely-available price
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces value

Cons

• - Limited data differentiating the players increases outcome variance
• - Potential unlisted factors (injury, last-minute conditions) could change the true probability

Details

We find clear value backing Renata Jamrichova. The available player data shows both competitors with effectively identical profiles (both 10-21 on record, same recent results and surfaces), so there is no substantive performance signal favoring Dominika Salkova at a ~70% market-implied probability. The market price (Salkova 1.44 / Jamrichova 2.75) implies Jamrichova has only ~36.4% equity, but given the parity in records and recent form we estimate Jamrichova's true win probability nearer to 50%. Removing the bookmaker margin, the market appears to be overemphasizing the home/seed advantage; at our 50% estimate the away price of 2.75 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.5*2.75 - 1 = +0.375). We therefore recommend the away side because current prices offer meaningful value versus our conservative true-probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show essentially identical career records (10-21) and recent match outcomes in provided data
• • No clear form or surface advantage in the research to justify the market favoring the home player at ~69%
• • Current away price (2.75) implies ~36% win probability vs our conservative 50% estimate, creating value