Doroteja Petrovic vs Gala Ivanovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value exists at current prices: the favourite’s price is slightly too short versus our conservative probability estimate and the underdog lacks supporting evidence to justify a bet.
Highlights
- • Gala 1.222 implies ~81.9% win probability; we estimate ~80.0%
- • EV at current favourite price is slightly negative (~ -2.2% of stake)
Pros
- + Market clarity: clear favorite and clear pricing makes analysis straightforward
- + Conservative estimate minimizes risk of overbetting on thin information
Cons
- - Insufficient match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) prevents finding undervalued edges
- - Small market margins make it hard to claim value on the heavy favourite
Details
We find no value at current prices. The market prices Gala Ivanovic as a heavy favorite at decimal 1.222 (market-implied ~81.9%), while Doroteja Petrovic is offered 3.76 (~26.6% implied). With no external form, surface, injury or H2H data available, we apply conservative assumptions: the favorite is strong but the market contains an overround (~8.5%) that likely overstates the favorite's true probability slightly. Our best conservative estimate for Gala's true win probability is 80.0%, which is below the market-implied ~81.9%; this produces a small negative EV at the quoted 1.222 price (EV = 0.80*1.222 - 1 = -0.022). For the underdog, the required probability to justify betting at 3.76 is 26.6%; without supportive data to materially uplift Doroteja's chances above our conservative baseline, we cannot justify taking the long price. Therefore we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • No external data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — we use conservative priors
- • Market-implied probability for Gala (1.222) is ~81.9%; our conservative estimate is 80.0%, producing negative EV
- • Market overround (~8.5%) raises implied probabilities; without positive evidence this reduces value on the favorite