Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for T1: 90%
• • Current away odds (1.136) exceed our fair threshold (1.111), yielding ~2.24% ROI

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price
• + Low volatility match outcome expectation due to heavy favorite status

Cons

• - Edge is small — sensitive to small errors in our probability estimate
• - Limited information (no recent form, roster, or patch context) increases uncertainty

Details

We view T1 as a clear favorite given the price gap (1.136 away vs 5.45 home). With no injury or lineup information provided and applying conservative assumptions, we estimate T1's true win probability at 90%. That implies fair odds of 1.111, so the current market price of 1.136 offers a small positive edge. The home side's price (5.45) implies a low probability that we do not believe is mispriced enough to back Dplus KIA.

Key factors

• • Large market gap clearly favoring T1
• • No injury/lineup data available — conservative probability assumed
• • Bookmaker margin present; small positive edge at current away odds