Dragon Ranger vs T1
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no positive expected value at current prices—T1 at 1.562 is slightly below our minimum fair odds of 1.613, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Estimated true win probability for T1: 62.0%
- • EV at current price (1.562) is about -3.16% (negative)
Pros
- + Market favors T1 and the margin against Dragon Ranger is clear
- + If external confirmation (form/H2H/maps) later supports a >64% chance, value could appear
Cons
- - Current T1 price (1.562) sits below our conservative fair threshold, yielding negative EV
- - No external data available to justify increasing the estimated probability or reducing uncertainty
Details
The market prices T1 at 1.562 (implied ~64.05%). With no external data available we apply a conservative model that discounts the market by a margin to account for unknown factors (map pool variance, roster/form uncertainty, and event pressure). We estimate T1's true win probability at 62.0%, which is lower than the market-implied probability. At that probability the minimum fair decimal price would be 1.613; the available 1.562 is below that threshold and therefore offers negative expected value. Given the lack of corroborating information and the narrow gap to the market, we decline to recommend a side.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for T1 (1.562) is ~64.05%; we conservatively adjust to 62.0%
- • High variance in esports map outcomes and unknown map pool/roster details increase uncertainty
- • Small margin between our estimate and market means no reliable edge at current prices