Highlights

• • Market strongly favors the away player at 1.09
• • Provided data shows near parity between players — no evidence of a 90%+ chance

Pros

• + Both players have recorded match experience on the likely surfaces
• + No apparent recent injury data in the research

Cons

• - Market price is far too short to represent value based on supplied information
• - No H2H or distinctive form advantage in the provided sources to justify the favorite price

Details

We estimate no value on either side. The market heavily favors the away player at 1.09 (implied ~91.7%) while the available data shows near-identical profiles and records (both 10-21, similar recent results and surfaces played). There is no H2H, injury, or surface edge in the provided research to justify a >90% win probability for the away player. Using a conservative true-win estimate of 50% for the favored player, the bookmaker price is far too short and produces a large negative expected value, so we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical overall records and similar recent results (10-21)
• • Both have experience on clay and hard; no clear surface advantage shown
• • Bookmaker price (1.09) implies an unrealistically high win probability given available data