Duanrui Gao/Zixuan Zeng vs A. Koshiishi/H. Sato

Highlights

• • Implied away probability at 1.24 is ~80.6%; our estimate is 85%
• • Minimum fair odds for our estimate are ~1.176 — current 1.24 offers ~5.4% ROI

Pros

• + Home players show weak results and recent poor form, tilting expectation to the away side
• + Current market price is above our required fair odds, producing positive EV

Cons

• - Opponent (away) profiles and head-to-heads are not provided, increasing uncertainty
• - Edge is small (low margin) and payout is limited, making variance impactful

Details

We find small, actionable value on the away side (A. Koshiishi/H. Sato). The market gives the away side decimal odds of 1.24 (implied ~80.6%). Our assessment, driven by the provided profiles for the home players (Duanrui Gao and Zixuan Zeng) — both showing weak overall results (10-21 records, poor recent form) and limited high-level experience — puts the true win probability for the away team higher than the market-implied rate. With the market offering 1.24 and our conservative estimated probability of 85%, the bet yields a modest positive expected value. We acknowledge uncertainty because opponent-specific data and head-to-heads are not provided, so the edge is small and relies on the clear negative indicators in the home pair's recent form and career records.

Key factors

• • Home pair poor career records and recent form (10-21 each)
• • Market heavily favors away, but current odds (1.24) still exceed our break-even threshold
• • No opponent-specific data provided increases uncertainty despite clear home weaknesses