Dune Vaissaud vs Selina Atay
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Selina Atay at 4.25 because market probability for the heavy favorite appears overstated relative to the similar profiles and form; estimated true chance for the away is ~32%, yielding EV ≈ +0.36.
Highlights
- • Market-implied home win ~84% seems excessive given near-identical player data
- • Away price 4.25 > required 3.125 for our estimated probability, creating positive EV
Pros
- + Clear positive expected value at current away odds
- + Both players show similar records and form, reducing rationale for heavy favoritism
Cons
- - Limited data and no H2H or injury details in the research increase model uncertainty
- - Tournament SF context and small-sample records introduce variance; outcome can still be unpredictable
Details
Market prices make Dune Vaissaud a very heavy favorite at 1.19 (implied ~84.0%). The research shows Dune Vaissaud and Selina Atay have nearly identical profiles (both 10-21, same recent form snippets, similar surface history) with no injury detail or clear matchup edge. Given the parity in records and lack of differentiating information, the market appears to have overstated the home win probability. We estimate Selina Atay's true win probability at 32%, which requires min fair odds of 3.125; the available away price of 4.25 offers substantial value. Calculations: implied away market probability = 1/4.25 = 23.53%; our estimate = 32% -> EV = 0.32*4.25 - 1 = +0.36 (36% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We use the publicly quoted current decimal odds for the away side (4.25) in the EV calculation.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form in the provided research
- • Market strongly favors home (1.19), implying an 84% win chance which is inconsistent with available player data
- • No reported injuries, H2H, or clear surface advantage for the home player in the provided material, increasing uncertainty in the heavy favorite line