Highlights

• • Market implies only 38.5% chance for the away at 2.60 but we estimate ~46%
• • Experience differential and steadier career performance favor the away player

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available away price (2.60)
• + Away player has deep experience across surfaces and a much larger sample size

Cons

• - Limited direct matchup/H2H data and potential unknowns (injury/conditions) could swing outcome
• - Vaissaud may have home/young-player upside or seeding that explains market price

Details

The market prices Dune Vaissaud as a strong favorite at 1.45 (implied 68.97%), but our assessment disagrees. Vaissaud's career record (10-21 across 31 matches) and recent string of losses indicate limited form and experience. Wozuko Mdlulwa is a veteran with a large sample (559-507 across 1066 matches) and demonstrable ability across multiple surfaces; that experience and steadier historical performance materially increases her chance versus a relatively inexperienced opponent. There is no H2H available and surface split is not decisive, but overall we estimate Wozuko's win probability at 46.0%, which is materially higher than the market-implied 38.46% for the away price of 2.60. At 2.60 that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.196 per 1 unit stake). Given the discrepancy between market-implied probabilities and our modeled probability (experience/form advantage to the away player), the away moneyline represents value.

Key factors

• • Wozuko Mdlulwa's large match experience and positive career win rate relative to Vaissaud
• • Dune Vaissaud's poor recent form and small sample size (10-21 career)
• • Market currently overrates the home (1.45) creating value on the away line (2.60)