Dune Vaissaud vs Alana Subasic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Dune Vaissaud at 2.45 because the market underestimates her win chance given near-identical profiles; this yields ~20% ROI on our probability estimate.
Highlights
- • Market implies Dune ~40.8% but we estimate ~49%
- • Positive expected value at the quoted 2.45 price
Pros
- + Clear, quantifiable edge between our probability estimate and market price
- + No injury or surface evidence favoring the opponent in the provided data
Cons
- - Both players show generally weak recent records (10-21), increasing variance
- - Limited data and no H2H or venue-surface specifics reduce confidence in the model
Details
We see both players with nearly identical career records, surfaces played and recent results in the provided data, indicating parity rather than a clear superiority for the away favorite. The market prices Alana Subasic at 1.495 (implied ~66.9%) and Dune Vaissaud at 2.45 (implied ~40.8%); we consider the implied chance for Dune to be too low given the lack of differentiating evidence (no injuries, similar form and records). We therefore estimate Dune's true win probability at 49%, which creates positive value versus the current 2.45 price. Odds used for EV calculation: 2.45.
Key factors
- • Players show nearly identical win-loss records and recent form in the provided data
- • No injury or surface advantage information to justify the away heavy favoritism
- • Market-implied probability for home (≈40.8%) appears lower than our estimated true probability (49%)