Highlights

• • Away favorite's implied win prob (~68.5%) appears overstated vs. available form data
• • Home needs >38.5% true chance for +EV; we estimate ~43%, producing positive ROI

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge versus market-implied probability at the current price
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces positive EV

Cons

• - Research is limited and lacks direct data on Dune Vaissaud, increasing uncertainty
• - Short-term form and match-specific factors (injury, conditions) are not fully known and could reverse the edge

Details

We see the market prices Kateryna Lazarenko as a clear favorite at 1.461 (implied ~68.5%), but her long-term career win rate (~559-507, ~53%) and recent documented losses suggest her immediate form is not dominant. The house underdog Dune Vaissaud at 2.60 (implied ~38.5%) only needs a true win probability above ~38.5% to present positive EV. Given Lazarenko's inconsistent recent results and the sizable bookmaker overround (~6.9% on the two-way market), we estimate Vaissaud's true chance is meaningfully above the market-implied 38.5%. Using a conservative true probability of 43.0% for the home player yields EV = 0.43 * 2.60 - 1 = +0.118 (11.8% ROI), indicating value on the home underdog at current prices. We therefore recommend the home side because the market appears to over-favor Lazarenko relative to her recent form and career profile.

Key factors

• • Lazarenko's career win-rate (~53%) and recent documented losses imply form is not overwhelmingly strong
• • Bookmaker pricing implies a high favorite probability (~68.5%) which looks overstated given available data
• • Underdog Vaissaud only needs >38.5% true win chance to be +EV at 2.60; we estimate she exceeds that threshold