Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Obradovic: 56%
• • Current home odds (1.794) yield a small positive EV (~0.46% ROI)

Pros

• + Obradovic has more matches and a higher career win rate overall
• + Both players prefer clay so no surface disadvantage for the home pick

Cons

• - Recent form is mixed for both players, limiting confidence in a clear edge
• - Edge is very small; bookmaker margin and match variance can quickly erase gains

Details

We view Dusan Obradovic as a slight favorite based on his larger sample size and superior career win percentage (105-94, ~52.8%) versus Kristijan Juhas (40-44, ~47.6%), with both players predominantly experienced on clay so surface impact is neutral. Recent results are mixed for both, but Obradovic's greater experience and marginal career edge justify estimating his true win probability above the market-implied price. At our estimated probability (56%) the current home price of 1.794 offers a small positive edge after accounting for the bookmaker margin, while the away price shows no value. Given limited recent-form separation and no H2H or injury information, the edge is small and requires discipline to exploit.

Key factors

• • Obradovic's larger career sample and higher overall win rate (105-94 vs 40-44)
• • Both players predominantly play on clay, reducing surface-based skew
• • Market shows ~7.2% overround; small mispricing at the home price relative to our estimate