Highlights

• • Market price for Carreno (1.735) implies 57.6% — we estimate ~62%
• • Minimum fair odds for our estimate are 1.613, below current price

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Carreno's stronger career record and clay suitability support the estimate

Cons

• - Match-level variance in tennis can swing outcomes even when value exists
• - Our estimate is conservative but still relies on limited recent-match detail from the provided research

Details

We find value on Pablo Carreno Busta (away). The market gives Carreno approx. 57.6% win probability (decimal 1.735) but his career win-rate, stronger overall record (579-342 vs Lajovic's 532-457), and proven clay competence suggest a higher true win probability. Using a conservative true probability of 62%, Carreno offers positive expected value: EV = 0.62 * 1.735 - 1 = ~0.076 (7.6% ROI). The home price on Lajovic (2.15) implies ~46.5% which we consider too generous for Lajovic given form and head-to-head context from the provided career summaries. We therefore recommend backing Carreno only because the current away price (1.735) exceeds our minimum fair odds threshold.

Key factors

• • Carreno Busta has a better career win-loss record and higher consistency
• • Both players have recent Seville Challenger clay activity, but Carreno's profile suits clay outcomes
• • Market-implied probability (57.6%) is below our estimated true probability (62%), creating value