E. Adeshina/A. El Sayed vs M. Atia/S. Hansen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on the home side (E. Adeshina/A. El Sayed) at 1.24 based on a conservative 82% win probability estimate; the edge is modest and subject to uncertainty due to lack of external info.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (80.6%) is slightly lower than our 82% estimate
- • Estimated ROI on a 1-unit stake is ~1.68% at current odds
Pros
- + Small positive expected value at available market price
- + Conservative estimate reduces chance of overconfidence
Cons
- - Very limited data returned; higher model uncertainty
- - Edge is small — outcome variance in doubles could erase the advantage
Details
We compare the market-implied probability (1/1.24 = 80.6%) to our conservative estimated win probability for E. Adeshina/A. El Sayed of 82.0%. With no external data returned, we adopt conservative assumptions: home pairing as clear favorites on paper and likely to benefit from local conditions (Hurghada venue) and typical doubles/partner continuity. Our estimated probability (82.0%) exceeds the market-implied probability (80.6%), producing a small positive edge at the current decimal price of 1.24. Given the limited information and higher variance in doubles, the edge is modest but present.
Key factors
- • Market-implied home probability = 80.6% (1/1.24)
- • Conservative estimated true probability for home = 82.0%
- • No external research returned — higher model uncertainty
- • Venue/home advantage (Hurghada) assumed to favor home pairing
- • Doubles matchups can be higher variance; small edge only