Highlights

• • Market implies home 66.7% but that looks overstated given absent intel
• • Away price 2.43 beats our conservative fair price (2.083), giving positive expected value

Pros

• + Clear positive EV using conservative 48% win probability
• + Market overround increases the chance of finding value on the underdog

Cons

• - No match-specific data — unknown surface, injuries, or recent form could invalidate our probability
• - Doubles outcomes can be volatile; variance is higher than singles

Details

We have no match-specific intel (surface, injuries, form, H2H), so we adopt conservative, near‑even baseline assumptions. The market-implied probabilities from the quoted decimals are: Home 1.50 -> 66.7%, Away 2.43 -> 41.2% (sum >100% indicates ~7.8% market overround). Given the lack of information, it is reasonable to assume the true win chances are closer to balanced than the market's strong favoritism toward the home side. We conservatively estimate the away pair's true win probability at 48%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 1 / 0.48 = 2.083; the available away price of 2.43 is substantially higher, producing a positive expected value. Using the quoted 2.43 for the away side yields EV = 0.48 * 2.43 - 1 = 0.1664 (≈16.6% ROI). We therefore identify the away line as offering value under these conservative assumptions. Key uncertainties that could negate this value are unknown surface suitability, any unreported injuries, or significant form/H2H edges for the home team.

Key factors

• • No specific match intel (surface, injuries, form) — default to conservative near‑even probability
• • Market overround (~7.8%) inflates favorite; home price at 1.50 looks steep without supporting data
• • Available away price 2.43 exceeds our conservative fair price (2.083), producing positive EV